• Marija Trpkova-Nestorovska Faculty of Economics, University “Ss.Cyril and Methodius”, Skopje
Keywords: Emigration, panel regression model, European Union, unemployment


The past decade was a period that was characterized by massive migration flows in European Union countries, a situation like none other before. Different migration flows contributed to inflow of working force from conflict areas of the Middle East, countries from the Western Balkans, and also migration within the European Union. While immigration is dominant, emigration also has large impact in the migration flow in the EU. The purpose of this paper is to determine the main factors that contribute to emigration in the 28 EU countries. The panel regression model with random effects is used where seven factors were examined in order to determine their influence on the emigration. Macroeconomic determinants include GDP per capita and unemployment rate, demographic factors include total population, young male population and young female population and other factors include level of corruption and enrollment in tertiary education. Analysis includes 28 EU countries, while the analyzed period is 1999-2017 (19 periods), and the total number is 560 observations. The results confirm that emigration is driven by unemployment rate, total population, young male and young female population. When the unemployment rate increases, the emigration also increases, which is logical. If the national labor market cannot provide vacancies for the increasing supply of work force, the next option would be emigration in another country due to eligible working positions. Population, as demographic factor, also influences emigration. The bigger the population, the larger emigration is expected. Also, young female and male population have statistically significant effect on the emigration, yet the direction of the relationship is different. Increase in young male population can contribute to increase in emigration. On the other side, increase in young female population reduces the number of emigrants. From the results it would seem that demographic factors dominate over macroeconomic and other factors. Policy makers in the countries with accentuated emigration component should be concerned that young male population is leaving, and this labor force is or soon will become deficitary. Also, unemployment is another issue that should be addressed. National governments should create policies that contribute to increased economic growth that produces vacancies. Otherwise, the high unemployment rate would soon drain the country out of its working source. Other factors such as level of corruption, GDP per capita and enrollment in tertiary education seem not to have statistically significant impact on emigration in the countries of the European Union.


Bansak, C., Simpson, N., & Zavodny, M. (2015). The Economics of Immigration. Oxford: Routledge.

Brooks, C,. (2014). Introductory Econometric for Finance. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

Draženović, I., Kunovac, M., & Pripužić, D. (2018). Dynamics and determinants of emigration: the case of Croatia and the experience of new EU member states. Public Sector Economics, 42(4), pp.415-447.

Eurostat (2019). Eurostat online data base available from: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/population-demography-migration-projections/data/database#, Accessed 15th of June, 2019.

Forte, G., & Portes, J. (2017). Macroeconomic determinants of international migration to the UK. GLO Discussion Paper, No. 69.

The International Monetary Fund (2019). World Economic Outlook (online database) available from: https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2019/01/weodata/download.aspx, Accessed 16th of June, 2019.

Kim, K., & Cohen, J. E. (2010). Determinants of international migration flows to and from industrialized countries: A panel data approach beyond gravity. International Migration Review, 44(4), pp. 899-932.

Mayda, A. M. (2007). International migration: A panel data analysis of the determinants of bilateral flows. Journal of Population Economics, 23(4), pp.1249-1274.

Ристески, С. & Трпкова, М. (2014). Демографија методи и анализа. Економски факултет, Скопје.

Ристески, С., Тевдовски, Д. & Трпкова, М. (2012). Вовед во анализата на временските серии. Универзитет Св. „Кирил и Методиј“, Скопје.

Simpson, N. (2017). Demographic and economic determinants of migration. IZA World of Labor 2017: 373.

Sprenger, E. (2013). The determinants of international migration in the European Union: an empirical analysis (No. 325). IOS Working Papers.

Sheytanova, T. (2015). The Accuracy of the Hausman Test in Panel Data: a Monte Carlo Study.

Transparency International (2019). Corruption Perceptions Index 2018 (online database) available from: https://www.transparency.org/cpi2018, Accessed 16th of July, 2015.

Zoubanov, N. (2004). Assessing general and country-specific determinants of migration in the European Union: A panel data approach. 7th IZA European Summer School in Labor Economics, Buch/Ammersee.

How to Cite
Trpkova-Nestorovska, M. (2019). FACTORS OF EMIGRATION: ANALYSIS OF COUNTRIES FROM THE EUROPEAN UNION. Knowledge International Journal, 32(1), 33 - 38. Retrieved from https://ikm.mk/ojs/index.php/KIJ/article/view/1399