MODELING AND FORECASTING THE FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT OF THE COMPANY

Abstract

In modern conditions, with growing uncertainty and a high degree of risk in connection with the economic crisis, the need for motivated financial and economic decisions by the owners and managers of modern organizations is growing. That is why effective resource management is especially important at the moment. The need for short-term forecasting of the economic functioning of the modern company is especially relevant in the current financial crisis. Despite the large number of studies and different models in the effectiveness of loans, currently modeling and forecasting the dynamics of the company is of particular interest to researchers. To overcome the existing problems in the use of forecasting the success of the company, it is necessary to re-understand the principles underlying the modeling of the dynamics of the economic environment in the region and in the country. Therefore, the aim of the study is to develop systematic approaches for analysis and forecasting of current trends and cycles in economic, demographic, social and technological regional dynamics in changes in the economic situation. In this regard, the main methods and models for short-term forecasting are considered as reactions, policies of the company in response to constant changes in the economic situation in the country. Some of these reactions in the activities of the modern company are based on the experience gained, which are on the border between science and art, mobilizing intuition and other unique opportunities to realize the success of its operation. In addition, the forecasting methods for the functioning of the modern company are considered, such as: extrapolation forecasting method, which is based on the assumption that the forecast process tends to naturally continue the trend, reflecting changes in its parameters in past periods; method of expert assessments - which are based on the analysis of the assessments of highly qualified experts in the field of scientific knowledge of financial management, which are considered universal and applicable to short-term forecasts; scenario method - which is based on many options for forecasting the economic situation and identifying strategies for achieving effective economic results.