ESTIMATING POTENTIAL CURRENCY CRISIS: EVIDENCE FROM SMALL AND OPEN ECONOMY
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.35120/kij6001043bKeywords:
currency crisis, foreign exchange market, Pearson coefficient, Linear regression analysis, exogenous shocks, Macedonia.Abstract
Тhe mаin rеаsоn for the еxchаnge rate sеnsitivity is the dоubts in its crеdibility rеlаtеd to the trаde, wеаknesses in the finаnciаl sеctоr, еxternаl shоcks, pоlitical errоrs, cоuntry risk, еtc. Тhis paper discuss about potential currency crisis in the Republic of N. Macedonia for the period before pandemic and give the answer to what kind of lessons should we take into account regarding past period which is measured in the research. The paper presents the results of a possible crisis scenario in N. Macedonia and give statistical analysis of the relationship of the indicators of a currency crisis, examining two questions - are disorders in Macedonia that can cause a currency crisis and which generation currency crises would be the closest for Macedonia.
References
Agénor, P., McDermott, C. J., & Prasad, E. S. (2000). Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Some Stylized Facts. The World Bank Economic Review, 14(2), 251–285.
Akdal, S. (2010). ‘How Do Firm Characteristics Affect Capital Structure? Some uk Evidence.’ mpra paper29199,Munich.https://mpra.ub.unimuenchen.de/29199/1/MPRA_paper_29199.pdf
Beck, T., Demirguc-Kunt, A. (2006), “Small and medium-sized enterprises: Access to finance as a growth constraint”, Journal of Banking & Finance, Vol. 30, No. 11, pp. 2391-2943
Boskov, T. (2019). Egypt Currency Crisis: Analysis of the Causes. IJIBM International Journal of Information, Business and Management, 11 (1). pp. 1-9. ISSN 2076-9202 (Print)/2218-046X (Online)
Boskov, T. (2018). Mexican Currency Crisis: Overview and Lessons. IJIBM International Journal of Information, Business and Management, 10 (4). pp. 83-90. ISSN 2076-9202 (Print)/2218-046X (Online)
Boskov, T. (2018). Venezuela Currency Crisis: Analysis Of The Causes. IJIBM International Journal of Information, Business and Management, 10 (4). pp. 119-125. ISSN 2076-9202 (Print)/2218-046X (Online)
Budsayaplakorn, S. et al (2010). Can Macroeconomic Indicators Predict a Currency Crisis? Evidence from Selected Southeast Asian Countries. Emerging Markets Finance & Trade, November–December 2010, Vol. 46, No. 6, pp. 5–21.
Bulatović, M. (2011). Ekonomija i demokratija: Držati glavu iznad. Cetinje: Centralna narodna biblioteka Crne Gore.
Claessens, S. & Ayhan Kose, M. (2013). Financial Crises: Explanations, Types, and Implications. IMF Working Paper, WP 13/28, pp. 1-65.
Dietrich, D et al. (2011). Central and Eastern European countries in the global financial crisis: atypical twin crisis? Post-Communist Economies Vol. 23, No. 4, December 2011, 415–432.
Dornbusch, R., Werner, A., Calvo, G., & Fischer, S. (1994). Mexico: Stabilization, Reform, and No Growth. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1994(1). 253-315. doi:10.2307/2534633
Eichengreen, B., Rose, A., & Wyplosz, C. (1996). Contagious Currency Crises: First Tests. Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 98(4), 463-484. doi:10.2307/3440879
Feridun, M. (2004). Brazilian Real Crisis Revisited: A Linear Probability Model. International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies. Vol. 1-1(2004), pp. 81-96
Krugman, P. (2000). Currency Crisis. London: The University of Chicago Press, National Biro of Economic Research Conference Report.
Lestano, & Jacobs, J. P. A. M. (2007). Dating currency crises with ad hoc and extreme value-based thresholds: East Asia 1970–2002. International Journal of Finance and Economics, 12(4), 371–388. doi:10.1002/ijfe.316
Obstfeld, M. (1994). The Logic of Currency Crisis, Banque de France/The bank of France. Cahiers economiques et monetaires/Economic and currency notebooks, no. 43, pp. 189 – 213
Sachs, J. D., Tornell, A., & Velasco, A. (1996). Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: The Lessons From 1995. Brooking Papers on Economic Activity, 1, 147–215.
